The Biggest Crap Shoot in Sports

Pick a winner for the Daytona 500.  I dare you. 

If you're lucky, you might be right-- because at Daytona it's more about luck than it is car set-up, driver ability, and track know-how.

NASCAR history is filled with drivers who should have won at Daytona and didn't.

Dale Earnhardt dominated the Daytona 500 in 1990, and then cut a tire with one-half lap to go. Earnardt backed off his throttle, and Derrick Cope dove low, held off two other cars to the finish line, and proceeded to victory lane at NASCAR's most famous race track.

Matt Kenseth won in 2009 after starting 39th.

It doesn't have to be a dark-horse. Richard Petty won his 6th Daytona race after leaders Cale Yarbrough and Donnie Allison crashed and had a fist-fight on the final lap. His father, Lee won the first 500 after a 3-day wait for a photo finish to be analyzed.

Pete Hamilton in 1970, Ward Burton in 2002, and Ernie Irvan, all upset winners.

For all the guys who scored a surprising win, there are favorites who suffered disappointing losses. Waltrip and Earnhardt are the most glaring examples. Both were solid, experienced drivers and it took years of trying before they experienced the elation of victory lane.

Oh, and then there's fan favorite Mark Martin, who lost by inches in 2007

So, pick a winner for this year's 500.  I dare you.